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Get $10 off your Passport by using the code ‘BTCTHERAPY.’

BITCOIN IS GETTING DECIMATED (AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT) 🩸

Carnage.

That’s one way to describe the current Bitcoin market.

In the last 30 days, bitcoin has dropped 19%. 📉

Here’s a TLDR on why the market is pooping its pants:

1/ The German government has been selling off Bitcoin like it’s a hot potato

They have already sold 7,583 BTC (worth $435M)

The bratwurst munchers still have over 41,000 BTC left (worth $2.3B)

2/ The US government moved 237 BTC ($13M)

Did the USG sell this Bitcoin? We don’t know, but the sell rumors were enough to drive the price down.

Uncle Sam is currently sitting on a 213,000 BTC pile ($12.3B)

3/ Mt.Gox wallet moved 47,000 BTC ($2.7B) for another repayment

These 3 together are causing investors to poop their pants and sell their Bitcoin.

Here’s what my favorite BItcoin market indicator is saying about the current investor sentiment:

Personally, selling is the last thing I’m thinking about right now.

And I’m not alone. Let’s ask 2 of the most legendary investors in history what they think:

That’s right - while everyone is panicking, smart money is doubling down.

That’s because this dip is nothing new.

As you can see, Bitcoin goes to a new all-time-high every 4 years:

• 2012: Bitcoin goes from $12 to $1000 = ~9,000% increase

• 2016: Bitcoin goes from $650 to $19K = ~3,000% increase

• 2020: Bitcoin goes from $8K to $69K = ~1,200% increase

• 2024: ?

Notice how, in every consecutive cycle, the Bitcoin returns get smaller by about ~60%.

That would imply a 450% price increase this cycle, putting Bitcoin at ~$330,000 per coin.

I can live with that. 😌

WHAT IF YOU LOST ALL YOUR BITCOIN? 😭

Imagine this: 

• You’ve been working your ass off and saving Bitcoin for years

• One beautiful day, you open your online wallet and see a big fat 0 on your screen

• You’ve been a victim of a cyberattack, and your hard-earned Bitcoin is gone forever. Poof., Just like that.

I don’t need to imagine this: this happened to me in 2018.

After that, I learned my lesson: always use a hardware wallet (I cannot stress this enough).

My choice? The Passport from Foundation Devices.

The founder, Zach Herbert, and the team have built a beautiful device to secure your Bitcoin:

1. Security. Passport is 100% cold storage - your Bitcoin keys NEVER interact with the outside world

2. Ease of use. No tiny screens or fiddly buttons. The Passport is one of the few wallets that is a joy to use (just look at that beauty below)

3. Made for your smartphone. The guys have built a mobile app that works seamlessly with your Passport 📱

And the best part? As a reader of BItcoin Therapy, you get $10 off your Passport if you use the code ‘BTCTHERAPY.’

PS: If you have any questions about hardware wallets, reply to this email (I always reply)

MILLENNIALS ❤️ BITCOIN

Bitcoin is a wealth transfer from boomers to millennials.

I’ve been saying this since 2023:

It’s estimated that Boomers in the US hold $78.3T worth of wealth. 💰

Check this out:

Now, Boomers don’t like hearing this, but they didn’t have to do much to get wealthy.

Here’s the boomer wealth formula:

1. Be born in the biggest bull market in the US history

2. Buy real estate and other assets for $2.46 and a bag of cashews

3. Wait for these assets to appreciate

Now, I’m not hating on boomers - I would’ve done the same in their shoes.

But Boomers are growing old. 👴

And you know what that means? The biggest recorded wealth transfer in history.

The big winners? Gen X and Millennials.

They’re set to receive…*checks notes*…$84T from boomers (source: Bank of America)

That’s a lot of money (and avocado toast).

Now, the million-dollar question: where will younger generations invest this $84T?

Here’s what Bank of America thinks:

That’s right - the younger generations are all about crypto/digital assets.

The difference in generations is stark:

• Ages 21-42: 28% like crypto 👦

• Ages 44+: Only 4% like crypto 👴

Let’s do some quick math, shall we?

*whips out a calculator*

Let’s imagine 2 scenarios where a % of the $84T flows to Bitcoin:

1/ Scenario A: 10% flows to Bitcoin = 8x increase in Bitcoin’s current market capitalization.

Price per Bitcoin: $400,000

2/ Scenario B: 20% flows to Bitcoin = 16x increase in Bitcoin’s current market capitalization.

Price per Bitcoin: $800,000

I used to hate math in school, but now I love it!

TLDR: Boomers are passing down tons of wealth, and their rebellious kids want Bitcoin.

SHOW THIS TO YOUR NORMIE FRIENDS

“How high can Bitcoin price go?”

The age-old question.

Short answer: infinity

Let me explain:

1. Measure Bitcoin in fiat

2. As long as fiat keeps depreciating, bitcoin keeps appreciating

So yeah, infinity.

But that’s not helpful when making the investment case for Bitcoin to my normie friends. (I don’t have friends, but you get the point)

So, how high can Bitcoin go (even when measured in flawed fiat)?

To answer that, we must take a look at how Bitcoin compares to other SOV (store of value) assets.

In my opinion, the whole SOV market is bloated—just like you, the morning after a night out with the boys.

Now, here’s what I mean by SOV assets:

• Real Estate

• Fine art (no, NFTs are not fine art)

• Precious metals

• Stock market

• Bonds

• Money

• Bitcoin

Total TAM (target addressable market) for all the SOV assets in the world: ~$900 trillion

Note that Bitcoin is just a $1 trillion market or a measly 0.05% of the total SOV market. That’s peanuts.

Now, here’s my assumption: if Bitcoin becomes a widely used SOV asset, it must capture some of the value currently parked in other SOV assets.

But how much? 5%? 12%? 50%?

Well, no idea. But it’s fun to play around with the numbers and see what valuation we end up with.

MATH TIME!

*whips out calculator*

1/ Scenario A: Bitcoin captures 15% of the SOV market:

• Bitcoin absorbs: $135 Trillion

• Bitcoin price: $6,400,000 per Bitcoin 🤯

2/ Scenario B: Bitcoin captures 25% of the SOV market:

• Bitcoin absorbs: $225 Trillion

• Bitcoin price: $10,700,000 per Bitcoin 🤯🤯

3/ Scenario C: Bitcoin captures 35% of the SOV market:

• Bitcoin absorbs: $315 Trillion

• Bitcoin price: $15,000,000 per Bitcoin 🤯🤯🤯

Whew.

Now, you might call me crazy as you’re reading this.

But you know what? The math checks out.

So next time your family says “bItCoIn iS tOo eXpeNsIvE,” slap them and send them this email.

TLDR: Bitcoin still has a lot of room to grow. Next stop: moon 🌑

That’s it for this one—big thanks to Foundation Devices who allow us to write Bitcoin Therapy. You support us by supporting them ❤️

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It only takes 5 seconds, but it means the world to me. Thanks!

See you next Sunday,

Arsen