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Good morning - Arsen here. ☕

Welcome back to Bitcoin Therapy. We’re like the Swiss train of Bitcoin newsletters - reliable and always on time.

First, happy and relaxing Sunday to 5,842 patients reading today. 👋 

No intro this week. Why? Because you’re not here for my random thoughts. You’re here for the juicy news, amirite?

Alright, here’s what I got for you this week:

• My price prediction: $30,000,000 per Bitcoin

• Ethereum is centralized garbage (here’s why) 💩

• This Bitcoin business is a money printer (literally) 💸

Estimated read time: 4 minutes and 21 seconds

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Alright, let’s Bitcoin…

MY PRICE PREDICTION: $30,000,000 PER BITCOIN

What goes better together than peanut butter and jelly?

Bitcoin and your portfolio.

And that’s why, in 2024, Bitcoin will be a staple in modern investors' portfolios.

I heard this from this German kid. His name? Deutsche Bank.

So, how much bitcoin does one of the largest banks in the world recommend you have? 1%? 2%? 5%??!

No, a whopping 14% allocation to bitcoin.

We also saw that KMPG and Fidelity published similar figures. But on one thing the banks agree on: 0% allocation is dumb

Welcome to the new normal.

I remember when mainstream media called 1-2% bitcoin allocation ‘crazy.’

Now, let me prove the power of having Bitcoin in your portfolio with some math 💫

Imagine you have a portfolio with:

1. 1% allocation to Bitcoin

2. 99% allocation to S&P 500

I know, it seems small.

What does a measly 1% do? Well, check it out:

• Assumption 1: You don’t touch the portfolio for 20 years

• Assumption 2: Bitcoin goes up 35% for the next 10 years and then 30% for the following 10 years

• Assumption 3: S&P 500 goes up 10% for the next 20 years

After 20 years, your portfolio is 46% Bitcoin and 54% S&P 500. 👀

And what if, instead of 1%, you start with a 20% Bitcoin allocation?

After 20 years, your portfolio is 95.4% Bitcoin and 4.6% S&P 500.

That’s wild.

BTW these math examples were made by Rajat; give him a follow!

Now that Bitcoin allocations are increasing, the next question is: how big will Bitcoin eventually become?

Time for some moonmath! 🤓

*whips out a calculator*

• Assumption 1: The average future Bitcoin portfolio allocation is 70%

• Assumption 2: The total wealth in the world is ~$900T

—> 70% of $900T = $630T

—>$630,000,000,000,000 / 21,000,000 BTC = $30,000,000.

Yes, you’re reading that right. I’m predicting $30,000,000 per Bitcoin.

And you thought YOU were bullish?

ETHEREUM IS CENTRALIZED GARBAGE

Ethereum.

The golden boy of crypto.

The only decentralized cryptocurrency in the sea of garbage that we call the “crypto industry.”

At least that’s what Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, wants you to think.

Well, he’s wrong. How do we know? Vitalik doesn’t like when old videos about the early days of Ethereum are brought up.

So, I plan on doing exactly that: 5 reasons why Ethereum is centralized garbage.

1. “Ethereum was not sold for speculative reasons”

Meet Joe Lubin, the co-founder of Ethereum and number #1 mETH fanboi.

Joe doesn’t have a good memory. He keeps changing his mind more than Katy Perry’s boyfriend in “Hot N Cold” (still a banger in 2024).

• Joe Lubin pre-ETH ICO: we will sell ETH to people who buy it for speculative reasons

• Joe Lubin post-ETH ICO: it was not sold for speculative reason

See the video evidence here.

2. Censorship is part of Ethereum's culture

The Ethereum devs got together to discuss a big protocol update (because that’s how decentralized projects work, apparently 🤷).

This update would enable big network participants to censor smaller users.

The ETH devs’ solution? Remove the ability to censor…by censoring first. Lol.

I’m not making this up. See for yourself.

3. Ethereum Foundation dumped 70,000 ETH on retail investors

The year is 2017. Big brain Vitalik senses that the ETH market is running too hot and is about to correct.

So, what does he do? Accompanied by a laugh, he says he dumped 70,000 pre-mined ETH on the market, which doubled the Ethereum Foundation’s runway.

Just look at Vitalik squirming when asked about it.

4. “We can just delete the attackers’ deposits”

I’m pretty sure Vitalik missed the memo where decentralization was explained.

Let me help you, bro:

In 2017 someone asked how Ethereum will defend itself against attackers.

Vitalik’s response? “We just press this button and delete their money, lmao”

5. Vitalik has always been a speculator and a gambler

Here’s a brief exchange from 2013 (before Ethereum) between Vitalik and another developer.

Vitalik is urging the developer to launch his own altcoin.

The reason? So he can “increase the value of your investment” and “speculate around the announcement”.

Interesting choice of words.

Fast forward to 2014, and this is exactly what Vitalik and Co. did with the Ethereum ICO.

Vitalik knew exactly what he was doing when he:

• Launched ETH

• Dumped on retail

• Enriched himself and his insider friends

• Keeps lying about the shady launch of ETH

THIS BITCOIN BUSINESS IS A LITERAL MONEY PRINTER

Move aside, MicroStrategy. We don’t want to play with you anymore.

We have a new target for simping: Tether.

The OG stablecoin issuer (USDT) just came in swinging their big cojones and released their income for 2023.

And let me tell you: these guys make all the other crypto companies look like part-time hobbies.

Tether made a whopping $6.2 billion in net income in 2023.

This is:

• 78% of what Goldman Sachs did ($7.9b) 

• 72% of Morgan Stanley's ($8.5b)

The crazy part? Tether has less than 100 employees. 🤯

Goldman Sachs has 45,000, and Morgan Stanley has 80,000 employees.

So how does Tether make so much money (with so few employees)?

Their business model is simple. It consists of 2 steps:

1. Print and exchange USDT for US Dollars. People who use USDT are essentially loaning Tether US Dollars at 0% (and get in return 1:1 backed USDT)

2. Take this money and buy tons of US bonds that yield a juicy 5% 

3. Rinse and repeat

This model didn’t work when interest rates were low.

Now that the rates are high, Tether is a money-printing machine (quite literally).

The best part? Tether is using the profits to buy Bitcoin. A lot of it.

Here’s how much Bitcoin Tether holds:

• 75,354 BTC in total

• Average buy price = $30,305

• 0.38% of the total Bitcoin supply

• 7th largest Bitcoin holder in the world

Tether peeps, I know you’re reading this. Because you have big balls, I will let you sponsor next week's email.

No need to thank me.

QUICK NEWS⚡

• An OG Bitcoin Core maintainer, Wladimir Van Der Laan, is considering returning to Bitcoin after Faketoshi loses in court

• VanEck: 90% of ETF buys are still from retail investors (translation: the big boys are still not here)

• Meet the Japanese Michael Saylor! Japanese firm Metaplanet buys $6.5M worth of Bitcoin

THIS WEEK IN A MEME 📅

FROM THE ARCHIVE 📁

Did you know Ash Ketchum is “Satoshi” in Japanese?

Now you do.

PATIENT REVIEW 🧠

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See you next Sunday,

Arsen